This article examines the role of the Iranian diaspora in the
U.S. and its potential influence on Iranian foreign policy, focusing on Pahlavi
monarchists in particular. Drawing on Shain and Barth’s theoretical model, it
provides an analysis of conditions allowing diasporic communities to influence
the foreign policy guidelines of their countries of origin.
The study reveals that, despite the favourable democratic environment of
the host country and the presence of identity-based motivations among the
members of the diaspora, the real influence on Iran’s foreign policy is limited by
five structural factors, namely the economic vulnerability of the country of
origin; the ideological characteristics of the regime, which views diasporic
opposition as a tool used by external enemies; the potential for coercive
influence from the Iranian authorities; significant fragmentation around foreign
policy issues within the diaspora; and the Islamic Republic’s negative
perception of the diaspora.
The research shows that the Iranian diaspora’s political agency remains
structurally limited and unable to use demographic presence and democratic
advantages of the U.S. in order to have a meaningful impact on Iran’s foreign policy.
Iranian diaspora; Pahlavi monarchy; Iranian foreign policy; diasporic influence; political opposition in exile; Shain and Barth model; geopolitical strategy.