This article examines the role of the Iranian diaspora in the US and its potential influence on Iranian foreign policy, focusing on pro- Pahlavi monarchists in particular. Drawing on Shain and Barth’s theoretical model, it provides an analysis of conditions allowing diasporic communities to influence the foreign policy guidelines of their countries of origin. The study reveals that, despite the favourable democratic environment of the host country and the presence of identity-based motivations among the members of the diaspora, the real influence on Iran’s foreign policy is limited by five structural factors, namely the economic vulnerability of the country of origin; the ideological characteristics of the regime, which views diasporic opposition as a tool used by external enemies; the potential for coercive influence from the Iranian authorities; significant fragmentation around foreign policy issues within the diaspora; and the Islamic Republic’s negative perception of the diaspora. The research shows that the Iranian diaspora’s political agency remains structurally limited and unable to use demographic presence and democratic advantages of the US in order to have a meaningful impact on Iran’s foreign policy.
Iranian diaspora; Pahlavi monarchy; Iranian foreign policy; diasporic influence; political opposition in exile; Shain and Barth model; geopolitical strategy.