Akhmedov V.M.

A View from Russia: Prospects for Iran–Syria Relations after the Fall of the Assad Regime in Syria

Abstract

The rapid offensive of the armed Syrian opposition led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS – banned in Russia) on November 27, 2024 from Idlib, which ended with the capture of Damascus on December 8, 2024 and the fall of the Assad regime, called into question the future of the Syrian-Iranian alliance. The article examines the prospects for relations between Syria and Iran after the change of power in Syria. The factors strengthening the Syrian- Iranian alliance in the context of the Syrian conflict are also discussed. Iranian policy in Syria in the context of the war in Gaza is studied.

The evolution of Iran’s relations with regional and world powers in the context of the Iranian-Israeli armed confrontation Syria was a key factor in the fall of the Assad regime and the weakening of the Syrian-Iranian alliance. The study of Iran’s initial reaction to the events in Syria made it possible to identify the factors that undermined Iranian support for the Assad regime. The reasons for Iran’s inability to protect the regime and keep Assad in power are shown. Particular attention is paid to calculating the dominants of Iranian policy in Syria in the context of the evolution of Iran’s policy in the Middle East after the change of power in Syria.

Keywords

Syria; HTS; Iran; Iraq; Shia militia; Israel; the US; Middle East.

DOI: 10.31249/rimm/2025.01.01

Download text